June 29, 2022

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Experts say the Astros will be really good again

2 min read

The Astros are in the middle of a run rarely seen in the sport. They’re one of just three franchises to ever make it to a League Championship Series five years in a row – the 1970s Oakland A’s and the 1990s Atlanta Braves are the others.

During this run, the Astros have lost key pieces each offseason – including George Springer, Gerrit Cole, Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton and now Correa – that have given hope to the haters.

“THIS is the year the Astros fall off.”

Bad news. Most experts disagree.

Even without Carlos Correa, who became the game’s highest-paid position player when he signed with the Minnesota Twins in March, the Astros are expected to win their fifth American League West championship in six years and be one of the best teams in the league.

FanGraphs, the reliable baseball web site with analytics-based projections, predicts the Astros will win 90 games, which would put them far ahead of the next closest team in the AL West. The Angels have a projected win total of 83, followed by the Mariners (79), Rangers (75) and Athletics (68). Ninety wins also is the third-highest projection in the entire American League with the Blue Jays projected at 92 and the Yankees at 91.

FanGraphs gives the Astros a 71.3% chance to win the AL West, an 85.7% chance to make the playoffs and a 9.8% chance to win the World Series. Only the Dodgers (13.8%), Blue Jays (12%) and Braves (11.7%) are given a better chance to win it all.

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It’s not just the advanced metrics that favor the Astros, the folks who set gambling odds say the same thing.

BetOnline has the Astros’ over-under win total set at 91.5, which is lower than just the Dodgers (98.5), Blue Jays (92.5) and White Sox (92.5). BetOnline also has the Astros at 11-to-1 (9.1%) to win the World Series. Only the Dodgers (19-to-4) and Blue Jays (15-to-2) have more favorable odds. 

The media mostly agrees.

ESPN surveyed 38 of its writers, analysts and editors and 35 of them picked the Astros to win the AL West.

The only national media outlet that seems to disagree is The Athletic, which polled more than 30 of its baseball writers and editors and 42.4% of them picked the Mariners to win the AL West, compared to 39.4% who picked the Astros. 



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